Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 32.758193 35.316783 38.093567 41.351913 45.097996 49.303989 54.432676
2025-05-11 28.899077 32.290448 36.204752 41.129018 47.267425 54.825320 65.105167
2025-05-18 26.452899 30.207051 34.708977 40.634137 48.439136 58.711595 73.921917
2025-05-25 24.506823 28.429777 33.268370 39.858431 48.923707 61.525936 81.616401
2025-06-01 22.926422 26.926520 31.971234 39.034987 49.108708 63.790217 88.819829
2025-06-08 21.513672 25.510435 30.639515 37.981840 48.765769 65.120143 94.699998
2025-06-15 21.036586 25.254936 30.792561 38.955546 51.434659 71.448949 110.963460
2025-06-22 20.230265 24.500340 30.197381 38.776355 52.288868 74.917120 122.907200
2025-06-29 19.354551 23.596649 29.327128 38.100805 52.250965 76.795823 132.131306
2025-07-06 18.440993 22.592953 28.253193 37.026914 51.432155 77.106968 137.896807
2025-07-13 18.285035 22.619475 28.637059 38.199873 54.488296 85.237683 166.486719
2025-07-20 18.008200 22.457388 28.729556 38.911384 56.821214 92.446862 197.288966
2025-07-27 17.651796 22.187182 28.677958 39.441318 59.007396 100.149644 237.219051
2025-08-03 17.116112 21.636259 28.176182 39.191676 59.715276 104.766530 271.322104
2025-08-10 16.574476 21.050348 27.585313 38.738011 59.959290 108.335997 305.647932
2025-08-17 16.010204 20.407477 26.872936 38.020593 59.587893 110.278989 335.312910
2025-08-24 15.473904 19.785456 26.163430 37.258571 59.040148 111.656541 364.821192
2025-08-31 14.922422 19.122059 25.361009 36.282791 57.948469 111.333919 384.446009
2025-09-07 14.820890 19.124637 25.606005 37.185010 60.952396 123.578455 526.597354
2025-09-14 14.496806 18.778851 25.276745 37.019059 61.599317 129.009454 636.556076
2025-09-21 14.095924 18.303239 24.717913 36.393082 61.137492 130.773219 716.962198
2025-09-28 13.639792 17.730685 23.981591 35.396880 59.732177 129.066347 746.681458
2025-10-05 13.623230 17.829201 24.342675 36.484914 63.329668 146.129932 1281.243833